In the modern world of greyhound racing, players have been forced to place exotic bets to get a reasonable return on their large investments. When the profit groups of over $ 100,000 from thoroughbred racing are compared to the groups from anemic greyhound racing under $ 1,000, the reason becomes clear. To extract something of value in the sport of greyhound racing, you must play exotic pools.
I play horses and puppies. I do both sports in completely different ways. What works in horse racing will not work in greyhound racing. It requires two completely different skill sets. When asked which one I prefer, my answer is always horse racing. It only makes sense if you think about it. When playing with the horses, I am simply looking for potential winners and then see if playing with that horse to win will be profitable for me. In greyhound racing I have to find a winner and then evaluate 7 other contenders to race my key winner. I also have to analyze how many combinations I can play for a chance to win while keeping those combinations small enough that my bet is profitable. I have always liked a good challenge, but if I had the option, I would rather play a greyhound to win. With the prospect of improving the profit pools to play with, hopefully in the near future, I decided to visit this possibility and discuss the things involved to be profitable with this form of play.
The first step is obviously disability. In my opinion, I would only do you a disservice by trying to summarize how to harm greyhounds in this short article. That’s why I created an online greyhound college to teach. It takes training, time, and effort to become good at disabilities. It is certainly not something that I can teach in this short article. But I can give you some tips and how to apply them when playing winning groups.
Speed, class, early speed, and form are the main basics of the Greyhound handicap. Those are the basics. Beyond that, it is an opportunity. That would be the career setup you are analyzing. Neither factor means much if a greyhound is in a race that presents conditions that will give it a remote chance of winning. There is a lot of information online that you can Google and read for free on the topic of Speed, Class, Early Speed, and Form. Using that information, you will develop your handicap method.
Once you have a method, you need to determine how accurate it is. In today’s world of online data, it’s much easier for everyone to collect results and see how your selections work. You need to play on paper and compile results and statistics to know how good you are at picking winners. Most handicappers find that they perform better in some races than others. Some players specialize in maiden races, road races, etc. Know what your strengths are and what your average profit percentage is.
Once you have a handicap method, your role as a player becomes simple. You want to bet your picks profitably. Below is a fictitious example of how this could be achieved
Let’s say you’ve determined that you can pick the winner in Maiden sprints about 40% of the time. You also know that your second pick wins about 25% of the time. You could even go further if you have the records to back it up and say your third pick wins 15% of the time. To play Maiden races for profit, you simply need to place bets that will pay off in the long run. Remember that it is never about whether you win or lose a specific race. It’s all about playing a volume of races and winning more on cashed tickets than you originally bet. This is why record keeping is so important.
In the example above, your top 3 picks will be assumed to be 1, 2, and 8. An item with your win percentages would look like this
1 – 40%
2 – 25%
8 – 15%
What does that mean in probabilities? You will need to know this to make good decisions.
40% winners means that the actual odds of the dog winning are 1 in 2.5 or 1.5 / 1 against. 1.5 / 1 on the totalizer board probabilities is expressed as 3/2.
If you don’t have a good understanding of odds versus winning percentage, here is a table to help you.
Odds of Winning – Win%
1/10 – 90.91
1/5 – 83.33
2/5 – 71.42
1/2 – 66.67
3/5 – 62.50
4/5 – 55.56
1/1 – 50.00
5/6 – 45.45
5/7 – 41.67
3/2 – 40.00
5/8 – 38.46
5/9 – 35.71
2/1 – 33.33
2/5 – 28.57
3/1 – 25.00
2/7 – 22.22
4/1 – 20.00
2/9 – 18.19
5/1 – 16.67
1/6 – 14.29
1/7 – 12.50
1/8 – 11.11
1/9 – 10.00
1/10 – 9.09
1/11 – 8.33
1/12 – 7.69
1/15 – 6.25
1/20 – 4.76
1/25 – 3.85
1/30 – 3.23
50/1 – 1.96
99/1 – 1.00
Don’t let math, decimals, and percents scare you. With a little time you will become familiar with it. I like to use an easy example to get people started. Once you understand the easy ones, it will help you understand them all. We are all more comfortable with all ten. It is the foundation on which the dollar is built and, in general, we feel more comfortable with it.
If a dog has a 10% chance of winning, then he has a 1 in 10. If you divide 100 by 10, you get 10. So there are 10 blocks and our dog has ONE of them. So 10% is a 1 in 10 chance of winning.
Now the probabilities are represented as ODDS AGAINST. So if a dog has a 1 in 10 chance of winning, the odds AGAINST him are 9 to 1. This is commonly represented as 9/1 or the odds normally seen on a board.
To be profitable, if you know a dog’s odds of winning, all you have to do is get the prize pool to pay you MORE than those odds! It really is quite simple.
So let’s go back to our example
1-40% 3/2 odds
2-25% 3/1 odds
8-15% 6/1 odds
So we would put a disadvantage in the race and be ready to play long before post time. It’s as simple as comparing the odds the crowd gives you to the greyhound winning odds.
Let’s say with 1 minute remaining to bet, the 1 dog has a 1/5 chance on the totalizer board. The win pool gives you much less chance than the actual odds that this dog will win. You need to get MORE to show a profit at the end of the week, month and year. Remember that the probability table is fair. You need to get MORE than that in return.
Your 2 dog has a 25% chance of winning from your records. That is a 3/1 probability. Looking at the totalizer board, you see that dog 2 is at 6/1. That is a double overlap! The crowd is willing to pay you twice the actual odds that this greyhound will win. So the best play in this race is to bet on the 2 to win, although there is a 40% chance that the 1 will actually win the race.
This means that 75% of the time you will lose the race. But remember … winning or losing a race is not the problem. Earning money is the problem. Let’s take a look at the 2 dogs we hypothetically bet above.
According to his own research, this dog should win about 25% of the time. This means you WILL LOSE 75% of the time. But let’s look at a 12-race series. This means that 12 times this month we bet a 3/1 dog with odds of 6/1.
Bet $ 2 12 times for a total of $ 24 in bets.
The dog wins 3 times (25%) with odds of 6/1
Raise $ 14 each time. 3 X 14 = $ 42
$ 42 raised
– $ 24 bet
$ 18 profit
And that’s how you waste 75% of the time and still make money.
Betting to win is part art and part math. But it is much less complicated than building a complicated exotic bet. If you can hone your skills in the ‘art’ part of the process, the math part does the work itself.
Now work on playing to win in the WIN groups on the greyhound track!